International security expert Robert Pape issued a dire warning Sunday over President Donald Trump’s most recent threat to Iran, a threat that if made good on, Pape warned, could spark a “global economic disaster of historic scale.”
“Overnight, Trump’s threats have shifted the trajectory of this war,” Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, wrote Sunday on his Substack. “This is no longer just escalation. It is a decision point. If that line is crossed, the nature of the conflict changes – costs stop being reversible, timelines expand, and escalation becomes much harder to control.”
On Saturday, Trump demanded that Iran “fully open” a crucial shipping channel “within 48 hours,” and threatened to authorize strikes on Iranian power plants should they not comply.
According to Pape, Trump’s threat was a textbook example of what he’s called the “escalation trap,” a term that describes the pattern by which military retaliations and counter-retaliations exponentially reduce options for de-escalation. If carried out, Pape warned, the threat could draw the United States into a prolonged conflict with severe economic consequences.
“The United States is now approaching a specific decision point that will make losing likely. Most people don’t see it yet,” Pape wrote.
Pape expanded on his analysis Sunday – just hours before Trump’s deadline to Iran is set to expire Monday – in a series of social media posts, warning that strikes on Iran’s power plants could cause “catastrophic, long-term outages” and trigger “widespread societal chaos.”
Far from exit, Trump is causing a global economic disaster of historic scale— threatening to destroy Iran’s electric power infrastructure— sure to trigger retaliation vs GCC energy infrastructure—new levels of lasting capacity damage — favors Iran’s growing geopolitical leverage pic.twitter.com/dlZeXQnHHK
— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) March 22, 2026