In an announcement that took some critics by surprise, President Donald Trump demanded Friday that Israel halt its attacks on Lebanon amid the ongoing and fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire, an announcement that international security expert Robert Pape argued illustrated a major turning point for the United States and its power on the world stage.
“Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer,” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social. “They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!”
Israel had continued to strike Lebanon amid its recent invasion of the Middle East nation, and in spite of Tehran demanding Israel halt its strikes as a condition of the ceasefire. Apparently in an effort to appease Iran, Trump issued the demand to Israel Friday morning, and in doing so, demonstrated what Pape called a major “structural change” that was “happening in real time.”
“Consider the sequence: Iran explicitly demanded an end to Israel’s attacks in Lebanon. The outcome: a U.S.-backed truce that does exactly that,” Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, wrote on his Substack, the Escalation Trap, on Friday.
“That is not just diplomacy – It is leverage. It reflects a deeper shift: the ability of a state to shape not only its adversaries, but the behavior of its adversaries’ allies. For decades, the United States did not pressure Israel in ways that aligned with Iranian demands. Now it is. That is a structural change. And it is happening in real time.”
According to Axios’ Barak Ravid, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who’s wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes, including for using starvation as a method of war – privately pressured Trump to abandon the pursuit of a ceasefire with Iran.
With Trump seemingly disregarding Netanyahu’s advice, and issuing the state of Israel a fierce demand, Pape argued that the Trump administration was demonstrating a change in the world’s power dynamic, one that elevated Iran as an “emerging fourth center of world power.”
“This moment raises a bigger question: If Iran can exert this kind of leverage in the Middle East, how does that intersect with great power competition – especially with China?” Pape wrote.
“The Iran war is no longer just a regional conflict. It is becoming part of a wider system of global power politics. Understanding that evolving new global structure – and where it is heading next – is critical.”