Trump nears ‘political pain threshold’ as Iran war seals his fate: expert

As the United States ramps up its war against Iran, President Donald Trump may be nearing his "economic and political pain threshold," political analyst Trita Parsi argued Monday, a shift that may have already sealed his and the GOP's fate in the impending midterm elections.

“The United States is now only four months away from the midterm elections, dramatically shortening Trump's economic and political pain threshold,” Parsi, the co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, wrote in an analysis published Monday.

“In February, the administration could plausibly argue that the oil shock was temporary and that prices would normalize before voters went to the polls. A renewed conflict today would push its most visible economic consequences directly into the campaign: higher gasoline prices, inflation, interest rates, and rising food, airline, freight, and utility costs.”

On Monday, Trump announced that the United States would be “taking over” the Strait of Hormuz and reinstating its naval blockade on Iran, an announcement that came after Parsi’s analysis was published earlier Monday morning. As such, the “renewed conflict” Parsi feared appears increasingly likely following Trump's decree, despite the analyst's calls for a diplomatic solution.

“Although the United States could, given enough time, degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping in the Persian Gulf, there is little reason to believe it could do so before the economic and political costs became prohibitive for Trump,” Parsi wrote.

“It is essentially the same strategic reality he confronted in February. The difference is that he lacked the benefit of hindsight then. Now he has it – though it does not appear to have mattered.”

As the United States resumes attacks on Iran, oil prices skyrocketed Monday up to $80 a barrel, with brent crude already up by around 5% since Friday, The New York Times reported. A spokesperson for U.S. Central Command told the Times that Trump’s naval blockade would be enforced starting later on Monday.