Morning Joe pinpoints 'massive problem' that could be MAGA's death knell

President Donald Trump's war in Iran has split his MAGA base, and MS NOW's Joe Scarborough agreed that has presented a "massive problem" for Republicans going forward.

The 79-year-old president's counterterrorism chief Joe Kent resigned Tuesday over the war, saying the joint U.S.-Israel military operation was unjustified because Iran posed no serious threat to national security. The Dispatch's David Drucker told MS NOW's "Morning Joe" that Republicans were worried about the political fallout.

"Republicanson the Hill and the people inthe trenches working campaignsknew that this was a tough midterm election for Republicans to begin with aswe rounded the corner from lastyear into this year," Drucker said. "There was initially somethinking in the late summer,early fall, that this Trumppresidency, from a politicalstandpoint, was unfolding alittle bit differently than the first term. Some ofthe numbers suggested that, andthen with concerns aboutaffordability, the cost ofliving, and then, now the massdeportation program, thingsreally began to unravel."

"We're now in a place where Republicans that I talked toare talking openly about the Senate majority being in play," he added, "not that it's necessarily onits way out in the same waythat the House of Representatives majorityis on its way out, likely,but that it's in play, andthat's a new development."

Republicans have been worried about the Iran war's impact on voter turnout in the fall, but Drucker suggested the conflict would have far-reaching consequences for the GOP.

"When I talked to Republicans, this could surely impact voter turnout for Republicans in terms of gettingthe full element of the Trumpcoalition out in 2026," he said. "But Ithink what this really portendsis difficulty for the next Republican nominee toreconstitute the Trumpcoalition in 2028, because Trump's a unique figure.Obviously, a lot of people haveissues with him, but on the Republican side, you know,as I like to say, and as thenumbers show, he's just normalenough for the normies and he'sjust out there enough for thepopulists and the conspiracytheorists and the people whothink everything's rigged, toget them to show up — and theynormally don't show up becausethey just think there's nopoint in showing up because allpoliticians are the same."

"How do you recreate thatcoalition in 2028?" Drucker asked. "This iswhere these splinters, to me,are very significant, and it'ssort of similar to what we saw with Barack Obama and the Democratic coalition. Once hewas no longer a candidate, the Democrats had a hard time, youknow, putting together hiscoalition."

Scarborough agreed, saying that Trump remains incredibly popular among Republicans — but that popularity was no more transferable than Obama's was to another Democratic candidate or Ronald Reagan's was with another GOP candidate.

"JD Vancejust, he's completelydisappeared because thisobviously is the antithesis ofeverything he said during thecampaign that he and Donald Trump would be doing together, and so it is a fascinatingtime," Scarborough said.

"Thedanger here is that Donald Trump, in 2016 and 2024, wasable to energize people thatdidn't usually get out and vote," he added. "Those people are Americanfirsters. They hate wars, theyhate, you know, they're thepeople that were shouting theloudest about the Epstein files.

"You have all of these thingsthat are not going to show amassive collapse in polls forwars during the middleof a war from Republicans. Butthose are the people who stayhome midterms. It's not aboutwho gets out to vote so often.It's who's depressed, who's disappointed in theirparty in power and who stayshome, and right now that seemsto be a massive, massiveproblem on the horizon for Republicans."

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