'5-Alarm fire': GOP strategist says Trump is 'toast' if primary voters keep abandoning him

Former President Donald Trump is "toast" if Republican voters abandon him in the general election at anything like the rate they have been up until now in primary contests, wrote longtime Latino GOP political consultant and Lincoln Project co-founder Mike Madrid in a lengthy thread on X Monday evening.

This comes after Trump, who just became the first former U.S. president in history to be convicted on felony charges in New York, has continued to see high numbers of voters bolting in most contests to back former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, despite her having dropped out of the race months ago.

She has become a sort of protest vote for many Republicans uncomfortable with Trump, even though she has ironically stated her intention to vote for Trump herself.

"The primaries tomorrow will be the first clean data look at how Republican voters are reacting to Trumps felony conviction," wrote Madrid. "Most of the public polling shows that the conviction has further damaged Trump with GOP voters."

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"The magic number for Trump is 10%. If Trump is losing more GOP vote than that on Election Day he’s very likely toast. It may not sound like much but that kind of hemorrhaging isn’t unprecedented but you gotta go back pretty deep to get to those numbers in Presidential history," Madrid continued. "Trump has a continuing problem with the GOP base. He has an Election Day problem that’s not appearing in the polls - and it ain’t small. Haley and other candidates are routinely getting 18-21% even in closed GOP primaries."

Such numbers, he added, are a "5 alarm fire for any campaign."

"Anything less than a 15% support level for Trump suggests to me Republicans are closing ranks behind him," wrote Madrid. "Still, anything above 10% is a serious danger zone. A 17-20% defection suggests current dissatisfaction is sustained. Big problem for Trump and Republicans. Above 20%? Above 20% would be a disaster sign for Republicans. Fiasco."

Biden is by no means in the clear, Madrid concluded, since polls don't currently indicate Black and Latino voters are consolidating behind him as he needs them to. Nonetheless, "The magic number is 10% tomorrow. Keep eyes on it."