Democratic strategist James Carville says one Virginia House race could decide which party controls the chamber next year.
"Eugene's race IS the map," Carville wrote in an email sent Sunday by the re-election campaign of Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.). "Hold this seat, and Democrats have a real path to the House majority. Lose, and we're cooked."
Vindman, a retired Army officer who served on the National Security Council, won Virginia's 7th Congressional District in 2024 in one of that year's most competitive House races. Carville wrote that this year's race will be just as close.
"This ain't my first rodeo," he wrote. "I've been around politics a long time, so TRUST me: I know which races are THE races to pay attention to."
He said control of the House comes down to this one race.
Carville also warned that national momentum alone won't carry Democrats to victory.
"Momentum may be on Democrats' side, but it won't mean a hill of beans if the GOP is able to outspend us and blanket the airwaves with lies that trick voters into re-electing their majority this November," he wrote.
Democrats have plenty of reasons to feel good. Forecasters give them strong odds of retaking the House, and House Majority PAC just had its best fundraising quarter ever. Early voting is also underway in Virginia, where a quarter of a million people had already cast ballots by the middle of last week, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
Carville said winning the House matters because it would put "a check on Trump's power for the last two years of his term."