CNN's Harry Enten was surprised by the polling data for Vice President JD Vance, who's considered a frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
The 41-year-old vice president has taken an active role in defending the nebulous agreement to end the war in Iran and has been promoting his forthcoming memoir, "Communion," and the network's chief data analyst told "CNN News Central" that prediction markets had soured on his chances.
"Become the Republican nominee, they havebeen tumbling, they have beenfalling down," Enten said. "What are wetalking about? A real closinghere since the beginning of theyear. Chance to be the 2028 GOPnominee, you know, you go back afew months ago. Look at this, clear favorite, 50 percent chance, Marco Rubio way back there at 11 [percent]. Butlook at this, the gap isclosing, it is closing. Yes,Vance is still the nominalfavorite. But Marco Rubio rightbehind him at 28 percent."
"So, you know,what happened during thatperiod?" Enten added. "Obviously, the Iran warhappened during that period, andthat made JD Vance's chancestumble and has made Marco Rubio's chances go right up – it's neck and neck."
Vance enjoyed am 81-75 approval rating lead among Republicans over Rubio in January, but the secretary of state now holds a 77-69 advantage among GOP voters, and Enten dug deeper into the vice president's popularity.
"You know whatI always say, you go to a homestate, the people who know youbest," Enten said. "That to me oftentimesgives you an idea of theirpolitical future, and on thisone, take a look here. Now, thisis the general electorate. But Vance's net favorability ratingin Ohio, you know, you go backto the 2024 election, he was atplus-five points. Even in Ohio,in JD Vance's home state,among the electorate overall,he is underwater amongindependents. Look at this, he's 27 points underwater. JD Vance, not so popular in the Buckeye State."
In his new book, Vance walks back his smear against "childless cat ladies" in the Democratic Party, but Enten found the damage has already been done.
"How is he doing amongwomen, among men?" Enten said. "Well, he'sunderwater with both of them.Among men, he's slightlyunderwater at minus-two points.Of course, if you're a Republican, you need to bepopular with men if you're goingto win a national election. Amongwomen, he is way underwater, he's 26 points underwater, andthe gender gap in the Quinnipiac University poll, when you matchthem up against other Republicans in the Trumpcabinet, the highest, thelargest gender gap, it actuallybelonged to JD Vance."
"Hedoesn't need to win women ifhe's going to win in 2028," Enten added, "buthe can't be this unpopular among them."