Republicans once counted New Hampshire among their likeliest pickups. Their top recruit, John E. Sununu, is now trailing as the race for senator slips from their grasp, according to a Washington Sun report.
When Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement, GOP leaders liked their chances with Sununu, a former senator from a well-known political dynasty who has often put daylight between himself and an unpopular President Donald Trump. The party also had plenty of cash to spend, and many expected Sununu to benefit from the popularity of Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who is also on the ballot.
The reality has been different. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has led most recent polls, and the Cook Political Report this week shifted the race from toss-up to lean Democratic — just weeks after shifting the race to toss-up status in the first place.
Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett said the coattails theory is shaky. New Hampshire elects its governor every two years, which weakens a governor's effect on turnout, and voters often split their tickets. "New Hampshire voters have never been afraid to bounce back and forth," he said.
The national climate is a headwind too. Higher prices from the Iran war, plus tariffs on Canada that matter more in a state on the northern border, are weighing on Republicans, said University of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala. In a late September AARP poll, half of voters named affordability as their main concern, and Pappas has put the cost of living at the center of his pitch while linking Sununu to Trump.
Sununu, for his part, told a local TV station that a trade war with Canada makes no sense, and he has repeatedly opposed the Iran war. Scala said Sununu is working to present himself as an independent outsider and play down his party label, but may not overcome an energized Democratic base, which outvoted Republicans in the state's September primary.
"The Democratic base is fired up," Scala said.
Republicans do have a significant spending edge, according to former political journalist Scott Spradling, who said the state has been saturated with mailers and TV ads going after Pappas. With the race in single digits, he said, whether that money can move split-ticket voters in the final month could decide it.
Pappas's campaign manager, Rachel Petri, said her candidate is focused on lowering costs and ending Trump's Iran war and tariffs. She argued Sununu is running to serve his corporate backers.