'Incredibly vulnerable': GOP senator's seat seen as 'most likely of the unlikely' to flip

With Republicans holding onto a slim margin in the Senate, Democrats are looking for seats they normally wouldn't have a shot at as the 2026 election looms, and Sen. Joni Ernst's Iowa seat has moved to the top of the list.

According to a report from NOTUS, Democrats realize they have an uphill fight but Ernst, who has been buffeted my missteps, is regarded as "'most likely of the unlikely" opportunities they have.

As Ursula Perano of NOTUS wrote, Ernst's glib comment about Medicare cuts included in the recently passed budget bill that "We’re all going to die," has given Democrats a wedge issue to use against her in 2026.

Add to that, farmers in Iowa have been buffeted by the changing political landscape, with the NOTUS report pointing out, "Its aging population is among those at risk of hits to government health care and Social Security. And Ernst’s recent hiccups don’t particularly help."

The report adds, "A ProPublica report in March also unveiled a series of ethical questions surrounding her relationships with military officials who also lobbied before the Senate Armed Services Committee, of which she is a member. She was not married at the time, and it was not against Senate rules for lawmakers to be romantically involved with individuals who work or lobby in their policy subject areas, but the situation raised some questions that Ernst would likely prefer to avoid."

According to Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Maeve Coyle, Ernst’s "... callous attitude towards Iowans’ health care, her history of corruption and ethics issues in the Senate, and her vote to cut Medicaid to deliver tax giveaways to the wealthy all make her incredibly vulnerable in 2026.”

The report notes that it has not been that long since Iowa had a Democrat representing the state in the Senate, with Sen. Tom Harkin stepping down in 2015.

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