A single mistake made by President Donald Trump could doom his party's hold on the Senate, according to a new report.
Trump's deeply unpopular war against Iran has put Republicans in a bad place ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, according to Zeteo and a memo from Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC aligned with Democratic Senate leaders.
“Donald Trump’s poll numbers weren’t great before he launched his catastrophically stupid and illegal war in Iran, but his never-ending conflict of choice has made things worse for Republicans and a lot better for Democrats as they seek to flip the Senate,” Zeteo reported Wednesday.
“It’s all bad news for Republicans. And that may well be the case regardless of what happens in the war at this point – even if Trump were to, say, finally wave the white flag and give Iran virtually everything it wants, which is likely the only way this conflict ends soon.”
Trump's approval rating on gas prices cratered from 46% on March 1, just after the war began, to 33% by July 14, per the polling. His approval on the broader cost of living dropped from 39% to 35% over the same stretch, according to the memo.
"Every state we track has seen a drop of at least four points, and none of it bounced back during the brief ceasefire," the memo states. "There is no reason to expect it improves now that fighting has resumed."
Lauren French, the super PAC's communications director, told Zeteo that rising gas and grocery prices have voters viewing "this war as a real negative, even more than they did when it started."
The fallout is reshaping the Senate map, the memo argues, noting that Ohio and Alaska have "moved to toss-up" and Iowa's open seat "has become one of the most competitive races in the country." None of that, the memo adds, "was true a year ago."
Approval numbers are also weak in redder states Democrats hope to contest, with cost-of-living approval sitting at 38% in Alaska, 39% in Iowa and Ohio, and 40% in Texas, according to the polling.
A brief ceasefire collapsed Tuesday when Iran launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan, prompting retaliatory American strikes in Iraq.
Even a swift end to the conflict may not undo the political damage, French told Zeteo.
"You're still going to see elevated prices because of the supply-chain issues that led to higher prices," she said. "It's not something they can magically flip a switch and suddenly prices are affordable for families."