Election guru shifts 10 statehouse chambers — and every one moves against GOP

The nonpartisan newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics released its final analysis of state legislative races ahead of November. Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson changed projections for 10 chambers — all shifting in favor of Democrats.

“In many states, Democrats are looking forward to a favorable year driven by a reaction to President Donald Trump and his policies,” he wrote.

Of the 15 competitive chambers this cycle, nine are currently controlled by Republicans and three are controlled by Democrats. Both of Alaska’s legislative chambers are controlled by bipartisan coalitions and the Minnesota state House is split evenly.

Jacobson said Democrats may make inroads even in states not considered competitive. In 15 chambers expected to remain in Republican control, for example, he said Democrats could chip away at majorities or break GOP supermajorities — when a party has enough votes to override a veto. Those chambers include the Georgia state Senate, the Indiana state House, the Kansas state House and both chambers in Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

In addition to winning control of the U.S. Congress, Democrats are looking to flip hundreds of state legislative seats this November following years of Republican dominance in statehouses. In addition to controlling a majority of governor’s offices, the GOP has held a majority of state legislative seats and chambers since 2010.

This year’s state legislative races are the third most competitive since 2010, according to Ballotpedia. The nonpartisan political encyclopedia measures competitiveness as the extent of choice available to voters: “More open seats, more contested primaries, and more races where both major parties field candidates mean more meaningful decisions on the ballot.”

Voters across 46 states will vote on 6,137 state legislative races next month. Of those races, 4,052 seats — 66% — are contested by both major parties. Ballotpedia found that 1,156 incumbents faced contested primaries this cycle — higher than its 16-year average.

Stateline reporter Kevin Hardy can be reached at khardy@stateline.org.

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