A prominent pollster aligned with the MAGA movement issued Republicans a dire warning Thursday just ahead of the midterms, one that he argued should be “terrifying” for the GOP.
“I just don't see how Democrats get any less than 235, 239 seats [in the House], I really don't,” said Rich Baris, director of Big Data Poll and host of “Inside the Numbers with the People’s Pundit,” speaking with “Breaking Points.” “And again, it could be a lot worse than people think.”
Calling in from North Carolina, Baris said that Republicans’ midterm prospects in the Tar Heel State were extraordinarily dire. While President Donald Trump carried North Carolina in 2024 by more than 3 points, recent polls show Democratic Senate nominee Roy Cooper with a double-digit lead against his Republican opponent, Michael Whatley.
“The number across all these [North Carolina] districts is like a 16-point swing. That's insane, but we are seeing it in Virginia and North Carolina, and here's why Republicans should be nervous,” Baris said.
“Those two states, they may not be predictive overall by margin, but they are predictive directionally, and it's hard for me to imagine that both Virginia and North Carolina are seeing comparable swings, yet it's going to be isolated to just these two states — I just can't believe that. I think what's more likely is that we have a much better view of the entire picture in these states… and that's probably what we're going to see in the rest of the country.”
As to why Republicans could potentially suffer an unprecedented loss in the midterms, Baris pointed to two key factors: Republicans’ redistricting blitz and Trump’s plummeting popularity, factors that may see Republicans such as Rep. Mónica De La Cruz (R-TX), who won in 2024 by more than 14 points, ultimately lose their reelection bid.
“To redistrict using Trump's vote as a benchmark was extremely foolish, and now you have someone like De La Cruz in deep trouble,” Baris said. “The internals show it, the early vote in that area should be terrifying to Republicans. Reality is gonna hit them soon. And now it will backfire.”
Baris also warned that Texas Attorney General and GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton was in deep trouble.
“In the Senate, I don't like what I see with Ken Paxton's chances at this point, and if Texas goes, then the Senate's going, it's gone,” Baris continued. “The polls are more likely to understate Democrats. Donald Trump is at a level of unpopularity right now that we have never measured.”