Brutal Fox News midterm scenario gives Dems strongest Senate majority in 16 years

Fox News’ Griff Jenkins laid out a grim midterm scenario for Republicans on Sunday, one in which Democrats could win their strongest Senate majority since 2010.

“We are back with all new Fox News Power Rankings — two major shakeups in the balance for the Senate,” Jenkins said, previewing the network’s latest midterm forecast.

Those “shakeups,” Jenkins went on to explain, were the Senate races in Kansas and Nebraska.

In Kansas, Fox News had previously labeled the race as “Lean R,” giving Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) a slight edge over his Democratic opponent, pastor Adam Hamilton. That race, Jenkins revealed, was being shifted from “Lean R” to a toss-up.

In Nebraska, where Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) faces independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn, Fox News shifted the race from “Likely R” to “Lean R.”

“As of now, with brand new Fox News Power Rankings, we see the seven toss-ups, and we have 48 seats in [the] Democrat column, 45 in Republican. So what does this math mean?” Jenkins said.

The seven Senate races now categorized as toss-ups by Fox News, Jenkins said, provided a pathway for Democrats to secure a 55-seat majority in the Senate.

“Let’s assume that one party had all seven toss-ups. That number then [for Democrats] would be 55, so the ceiling, the best outcome that Democrats could get for controlling the Senate could be with 55 [seats],” Jenkins said.

“Whereas, if you give all seven to the Republicans, that number then becomes 52, meaning that Republicans could hold control in the majority of the Senate with a narrow majority.”

The last time Democrats controlled at least 55 seats in the Senate was in 2010, though Democrats effectively held 55 seats as recently as 2014 due to Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME) caucusing with Democrats.

The new forecast comes shortly after Fox News predicted a similar best-case midterm scenario for Democrats in the House, in which Fox News’ Bill Hemmer described a potential “blue-nami” scenario in which Democrats would secure a 237-198 House majority.