A new national NBC News poll published Sunday spelled trouble for Republicans as the midterm elections approach, with one GOP pollster who helped conduct the survey reacting to the news with concern.
“These are rocky numbers for Republicans,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff with Public Opinion Strategies, speaking with NBC News, noting that while the numbers boded poorly for the GOP, they were “not catastrophic.”
According to the poll, which was responded to by 3,000 adults of all ages, ethnicities and party affiliations, 49% of registered voters preferred Democrats taking control of Congress. A total of 44% said they’d prefer Republicans seizing control, and 7% indicated they were unsure.
Perhaps more troubling for Republicans’ electoral prospects, however, was the shift in support from independent voters, who in the poll favored Democrats by a 12-point margin. Black and Hispanic voters, as well as voters under 50 years old – groups that helped catapult President Donald Trump to the White House in 2024 – also leaned Democrat.
Even more concerning for Republicans, said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hard Research Associates, was the lower threshold Democrats would have to clear this November to seize control of Congress.
“Does this need to be 2018? No,” Horwitt told NBC News. “[Democrats] are still in a really good position, despite redistricting, to win seats.”
Unlike the 2018 midterm elections where Democrats won 40 House seats, the party would only need to gain three House seats to reclaim control of Congress’ lower chamber.
Nevertheless, Republicans are “still broadly sticking with Trump,” NBC News reported, despite the poll showing a weaker level of support when compared with just three months ago.
“Republicans are still broadly sticking with Trump, with 82% approving of his job as president and 58% saying they ‘strongly’ approve,” NBC News’ report reads. “But that GOP support has dropped since March, when 88% of Republicans approved of Trump’s job as president and 63% strongly approved.”