While the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has sent oil prices soaring, with the national average cost for a tank of gas recently eclipsing $4, experts are now forecasting $6-per-gallon prices as early as this summer, a forecast that one media and political strategist said, if accurate, would lead to an “extinction-level event” for Republicans in the midterms.
President Donald Trump kicked off the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran in late February, prompting Iran to shut off U.S.-aligned vessels from accessing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping channel through which 20% of the world’s oil trade flows. As a result, oil prices have increased to levels not seen since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and show no signs of easing.
Increasingly, experts have forecast that national average gas prices could rise as high as $6 a gallon this year. Online prediction markets such as Kalshi are also now showing gas prices reaching $6 this year as more likely than not.
Should the gas price forecasts be proven accurate, Kurt Bardella, a NewsNation contributor and political strategist, predicted a bloodbath for Republicans this November.
“If this holds, it won’t be a ‘blue wave’ in November, it’ll be an extinction-level event that wipes out the GOP,” Bardella wrote in a social media post on X.
$6 may not be the ceiling.
— Grant Stern (@grantstern) April 5, 2026