House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) gave his crowd in Corpus Christi, Texas, his explanation of why polls are wrong — and Republicans are going to win the elections next month.
"Something is happening," said Johnson. "It feels like 2024. The polling is not reflecting this. The polling is not letting everyone know what is really happening. They are under-sampling Republicans. How many of you have entered a political poll in the last six months? Nobody."
"I go to airplane hangars and big arenas like this all over the country," he added. "I can't find anyone who comes to our events who has entered a poll."
Polls have broadly shown Democrats as favorites to win a majority in the House of Representatives, and competitive to win a majority in the Senate. Most reputable polling outlets control for things like response bias and unrepresentative sampling, to avoid the sort of problems Johnson is alleging.
Despite Johnson's projection of confidence, Republican-aligned groups are pulling money out of a number of GOP-held seats they consider to be lost causes.