One number ends Nancy Mace's Senate hopes before they start: CNN data guru

After suffering a devastating defeat in her gubernatorial bid last month, outgoing Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) hinted at launching a run for Senate to fill the seat left vacant in the wake of Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) death, but on Monday, CNN’s Harry Enten shared data suggesting her odds of winning were slim to none.

Graham's death triggered a scramble to fill his now-vacant seat: Republican Gov. Henry McMaster will appoint an interim replacement, a special GOP primary will pick the party's nominee, and the winner will face off in the November general election.

Mace is eligible to run for the open Senate seat, and despite being “probably the biggest name” among potential GOP candidates, Enten suggested there was virtually no path for her to secure the party’s nomination.

“At this point, I don't see the math there for Nancy Mace – the early returns are saying the math isn't there,” Enten said.

Using data pulled from the online betting platform Kalshi Prediction Market, Enten revealed that Mace’s odds of winning the GOP Senate nomination were in the single digits.

“Nancy Mace, all the way down here at 4%!” Enten said. “So despite being well-known nationally, at this point anyway, the people are putting their money where their mouths are – I don't give Nancy Mace much of a chance to win that nomination.”

As to why Mace was performing so poorly despite being a nationally recognized conservative figure, Enten provided a blunt explanation.

“Why is Nancy Mace's chances so low? It's because we've just done this!” Enten said. “We just put Nancy Mace in front of a Republican primary electorate in the great state of South Carolina, and how'd she do? She did quite poorly, that's how she did.”