Notorious election forecaster Nate Silver says a big Democratic win in next week’s midterms would be a “normal, unsurprising outcome,” and he points to several factors beyond gas prices, the Daily Beast reported on Wednesday.
On the Central Air podcast, Silver said history is the starting point: the president’s party typically takes heavy House losses in midterms, as Republicans did in 2018 when Democrats picked up 40 seats.
Silver then listed conditions specific to this cycle. Gas prices are above $4, he said, but that's only the start of it.
For another thing, he said, President Donald Trump is more unpopular than at any point in either of his terms. He added that Democratic voters tend to turn out strongly in midterms and special elections, that the country is in an Iran war he called "stupid," that Trump is 80 and clearly showing signs of slowing down, and that some Republicans feel betrayed over the Epstein files. He also said Trump is on the unpopular side of an 80-20 issue involving AI and data centers.
The Beast reports Democrats are almost certain to retake the House, while the Senate is harder, requiring them to flip at least four Republican-held seats.
Silver said they’d need some combination of Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas and Alaska, all states Trump won by roughly 10 to 20 points in 2024, with better odds in places like North Carolina and Maine.
His forecast model gives Democrats about a 75 percent chance of taking the Senate, which he likened to flipping a coin twice and needing one heads.