Pollster Nate Silver says early voting numbers point to stronger Democratic turnout than Republican turnout, a trouble sign for the GOP with Election Day approaching, according to The Daily Beast.
Speaking on the Shane Smith Has Questions podcast, Silver said early data shows “irregular Democratic voters” voting “but not Republicans,” and that the GOP must get its voters out to benefit from favorable territory.
He said he doesn’t think anyone expects Republicans to keep the House barring a huge polling error, but cautioned that Democrats can’t take the Senate for granted.
Silver added that polls may have missed President Donald Trump's voters before, because many are low-propensity and vote mostly for him. He named white working-class voters and younger Hispanic, Black and Asian men who backed Trump in 2024 as groups pollsters may have missed. Whether they’d back Republicans like Ken Paxton or Roger Marshall, he said, “history would say maybe not.”
“A lot of it comes down to turnout, in particular to Republican turnout,” Silver said.
Earlier in the week, Silver outlined the multitude of problems plaguing President Donald Trump and the MAGA movement likely driving these trends.
The Beast reports more than 43 million people have already voted, per the University of Florida’s Election Lab, against about 46 million in the whole 2022 early voting window. Black and Hispanic voters have turned out heavily, and Democrats have slightly higher turnout among infrequent voters in Texas and Georgia.