'Putin will not survive the defeat of his army': 'End of History' author Fukuyama

Writing at "American Purpose," the author of "The End of History and the Last Man," argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin made a fatal mistake when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

Francis Fukuyama, who is the director of the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy at Stanford University and whose book discussed the dissolution of the Soviet Union and what comes next, wrote that he is currently teaching in North Macedonia and that he has a few predictions about Putin's motives and why the future will not turn out the way the Russian strongman wants.

As part of his blunt appraisal he began, "Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion," before adding, "Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks."

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Adding that the end could "be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition," Fukuyama said that Russian troops will soon find themselves at a point where "morale will vaporize" due to supply shortages.

"The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities," he suggested before warning, "The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground."

With that in mind, he wrote, "Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?" and then predicted, "A Russian defeat will make possible a 'new birth of freedom,' and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians."

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