'Oh my, oh my': Data expert staggered by GOP-leaning group's devastating Trump abandonment

President Donald Trump's deepening unpopularity is dragging down Republican chances with crucial swing voters, according to CNN's Harry Enten.

The 79-year-old president remains underwater in public opinion polling with most demographic groups, and Enten told "CNN News Central" that he's struggling with a key voter bloc that Republican congressional candidates will need in November.

"Who are the people who aredragging down President Trump'sapproval rating?" Enten said. "We are talkingabout a very important bloc forthe president of the United States,that is Republican-leaningindependents. That is what'sgoing on. Take a look here, thisis the difference. Trump'sapproval rating at this point, interms independents who lean Republican versus those who arejust Republicans only. Look atthis, among independents who lean Republican back in termnumber one, he was at 73 percent atthis point. Down hegoes, an absolute collapse, nowjust 53 percent of independents wholean Republican now approve ofthe president of the United States."

"That's very differentfrom Republicans only," he added. "It was 83 [percent] at this point in term numberone, it's 83 percent now. But that'sa 20-point decline in hisapproval rating, nearly at the50 percent mark, with a group thattraditionally has very much beenin the president's camp."

GOP-leaning independents should theoretically be inclined to like the Republican president, but Enten said that support has collapsed since the 2024 election.

"Ohmy, oh my – GOP-leaningindependents on Trump in the2024 election versus Kamala Harris," Enten said. "He got 91 percent of that vote, nearly 100 [percent], you know, nearuniformity on that one. But downhe goes down into the deep bluesea, now at 53 percent on the jobapproval rating. I'm notthat good at math, but I believethat is a 38-point drop, a 38-point drop from where he was inthe 2024 election."

"As I said,this is a core group for Donald Trump, and they are waving adios,amigos – goodbye – we no longersupport you, president of the United States," he added. "We are going inthe other direction, we'redeciding to disapprove thanapprove. He's just above 50 percent ina group that overwhelminglysupported him back in the 2024election."

Those numbers bode poorly for GOP chances to hold on to their congressional majorities, he said.

"So you see this38-point drop here and you're a Republican member of Congresssay, 'Oh my God, I hope thisdoesn't affect me,'" Enten said. "Because ifit does, a lot of those swing-district congressional membersright on the Republican sidewill be waving, adios, amigos,goodbye. But you know what'sgoing on here? What's going onhere? By the way, this is a sixand an eight, what we're seeinghere, choice for Congress, Republican-leaning independentsin the 2024 election. Look atthis, they support a Republicancandidates by 83 points, but nowit's 68 points. That's a 15-point drop again in only 18months time."

"These are notnumbers that Republicans winwith, these are numbers Republicans lose with," Enten added, "and sowhat we're seeing right now isthat collapsing support for President Trump among Republican-leaning independents absolutelyfinding its way down ballot,making its way down ballot, andif these numbers hold for the2026 election, which isoccurring in only a little bit, about six months' time, dependingon how you count six months,that would be absolutelydevastating for Republicans."

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