CNN's Harry Enten forecasts "pain for the Republican Party" in next year's midterm elections based on this week's Democratic wins.
Democrats notched blowout wins in the New Jersey and Virginia governors' races, in addition to pickups in races across the country, but Republican Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) downplayed those gains as unsurprising, saying those wins were just as expected as Alabama electing a GOP governor.
"I disagree entirely," Enten said, comparing Scalise to a famous cartoon meme. "I think that the house is on fire and he's like the dogsaying, 'This is fine.' Take alook at this: It's all about themargins, baby. Look, Democraticcandidates' margins in 2024, in New Jersey, Kamala Harris won bysix. What happened on Tuesday?Well, right now Mikie Sherrillis ahead by 13 – that might be14 very quickly. We're talkingabout a shift of at least sevenpoints, upwards of eight. Howabout in Virginia? We had Kamala Harris winning by six. What dowe have? Abigail Spanbergerwinning by winning by 15. We'retalking about a shift of aboutnine points."
"If we had, let'ssay, an average eight-point shiftacross the board in all thedifferent House seats from the2024 result to then whathappened in the 2026 Houseelections, you would be talkingabout a Democratic gain of about20 seats, depending onredistricting," Enten added. "So when I seethose results on Tuesday night,I see these giant, these hugeshifts in the Democraticdirection. I say Republicanleaders wake the heck up andhave some of what I'm having,because this is a major warningsign."
Tuesday's contests were not an outlier to other trends since the 2024 election, according to the data analyst.
"Those are notthe only signs – when voters vote,Democrats do well," Enten said. "I mean, justtake a look at the House, special elections. Take a lookhere: The 2025 House specialelections. Look at those inwhich Democrats outran Kamala Harris. There have been five House special elections so farthis year, [and] in every single one ofthem across the board, Virginia, Texas 18. That was on Tuesdaynight. Florida 6, Florida 1, Arizona 7 – from bluedistricts like Arizona 7 tored districts like Florida 1 and 6. What we are seeing areclear shift towards the Democratic candidates in allfive of them, and we're talkingabout shifts on average of about or north of 15percentage points from the 2024presidential baseline, which iseven larger than the shifts thatwe saw in both Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday night."
Historical trends show parties that outperform their presidential election results in subsequent special elections go on to win the House majority in the following midterm cycle, Enten said, and that's exactly what Democrats have done since losing the White House and both congressional majorities last November.
"Yes, New York, New Jersey, Virginia – yes, these are [a] bluecity in New York City, yes, theblue states in Virginia and New Jersey," Enten said. "But historicallyspeaking, when you sweep allthree, you go back since the FDRadministration, guess what? The Democrats, when they sweep allthree, go on to win the Housefive out of five times. So it'sa special elections. It's New Jersey, New York City, Virginia, all those put together."
"Yes, itis a year from now, but allthose put together usuallyforecasts pain for the Republican Party come themidterm elections," Enten added. "If I'm Steve Scalise, I am not dismissingthese results. I'm going to tryand get myself some fireinsurance."