Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson (R-LA) speaks to the press following a House vote on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for the Fiscal Year 2027 on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 22, 2026. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon
In an ominous sign for the GOP this fall, the Cook Political Report shifted four statewide races in Republican-controlled states in Democrats' favor.
The storied election forecasting firm shifted the Texas and Iowa U.S. Senate races from Lean Republican to Toss Up, giving Democratic challengers James Talarico and Josh Turek a coin-flip chance to beat Republicans Ken Paxton and Ashley Hinson.
They also moved the Texas governor's race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, reflecting tightening polls between incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa — and most notably, shifted the Iowa governor's race from Toss Up to Leans Democrat, reflecting the consistent polling lead of Democratic state auditor Rob Sand over MAGA-aligned businessman Zach Lahn.
"The battle for the Senate is about to intensify ahead of the traditional Labor Day starting gun," wrote Cook analyst Jessica Taylor. "Republicans still retain a structural advantage given the partisan challenges of the map, and Democrats still need almost every key race to break their way. But as we recently wrote, in a wave election akin to 2006, even states that President Donald Trump won by double digits could move within Democrats’ reach. That’s what we see happening in Texas and Iowa."
"Even though, on paper, it should be extraordinarily difficult for Democrats to flip seats that Trump won by more than 13 points, it’s increasingly hard to ignore both public and private polling showing them to be more competitive," Taylor continued, citing the "worsening national and state-based environment" for Republicans.
Cook's move stunned some observers — who noted the organization tends to be very cautious with shifting race forecasts in this way.
"Cook is really conservative about moving races, and these numbers should scare Republicans," wrote Penn scholar and author Brian Rosenwald. "That means Cook is hearing about internal polling that’s bad for Republicans in both places."