'Problem has been percolating': Fox reporter flags Mike Johnson fight —and what comes next

Fox Capitol Hill correspondent Chad Pergram walked through the numbers Speaker Mike Johnson faces as he tries to maintain his leadership in the House.

In what he dubbed "The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Failing to Elect a House Speaker Quickly," Pergram explained that, "The problem has been percolating for a while."

"It’s been subterranean. Lurking underneath the surface. Not necessarily perceptible. Except to those who follow Congress closely," he said of the upcoming fight for Johnson to keep his position.

Johnson's most significant barrier, like Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) before him, is math.

"If there are 219 Republicans and four vote for someone besides him - and all Democrats cast ballots for Jeffries, the tally is 215-214. But there’s no Speaker. No one attained an outright majority of all Members casting ballots for someone by name. 218 is the magic number if all 434 Members vote," he wrote on Thursday.

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That kind of number puts a hold on Congress. Without a Speaker, the GOP can't swear in new members. Earlier this week, it finally occurred to members and lawmakers that without a speaker in place on Jan. 6, there can't be a 2024 election certification either.

McCarthy forced 15 votes before he was elected to lead the House, but it didn't last, with several fellow Republicans ousting him just ten months after he took office. Without a consensus around Johnson, there will be vote after vote until a Speaker is elected.

"A failure to certify the Electoral College on the day it’s supposed to be completed - especially after the 2021 experience - is playing with fire," wrote Pergram. "Such a scenario would again reveal another, never-before-considered vulnerability in the fragile American political system."

Things could get interesting if there's no Speaker by noon on Jan. 20, according to experts. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are out of office, but if there's no certification, it would mean the Speaker would get the post. Without a Speaker, however, it would move to Cabinet officials. None of the new ones will have been confirmed or sworn in.

So, it would ultimately fall to the Senate Pro-Tempore of the U.S. Senate, which is currently Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA). That changes with the new GOP-led Senate where 91-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) would take over. Unlike in the House, the presiding officer can swear in Senators and that body continues to function when Congress is in chaos.

See Pergram's full explainer here.