'My goodness gracious!' Expert makes jaw-dropping midterm prediction after Texas shock

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sounded an alarm to fellow Republicans after a Democrat won Saturday's special election in a deep-red Texas district, and CNN's Harry Enten said the governor is right to be worried.

Local union leader Taylor Rehment took down Leigh Wambsganns, a conservative activist endorsed by President Donald Trump, in a special election runoff for state senate in a reliably Republican district in the Fort Worth area. Enten told "CNN News Central" the Democratic gain was part of a nationwide trend.

"Whathappened in Texas 9, itdidn't just swing to the left, it took a rocket ship to theleft," Enten said. "My goodness gracious, the Texas 9 Senate districtelection margins, this was adistrict that Donald Trump wonby 17 points in 2024. For the Democratic candidate in thespecial election on Saturday – hello, won it by 14 points.That's an over 30-point shiftto the left. Any Republican,unlike Ron DeSantis, who doesn'ttake this seriously, they shouldrealize that this is veryperilous. They ignore thisresult at their own peril. Ron DeSantis is right to say, hey,special elections can be quirky,but this ain't no quirk."

Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX) blamed the election upset on an ice storm over the weekend, but Enten disagreed.

"No, that ain't no ice storm," Enten said. "If you ignore this, you're goingto ice yourself out of amajority come the midterms."

"So, you know, you seethis 31-point shift to the left, right," he continued. "If this were just oneelection, that would be onething. But it's the slew ofspecial elections that togetherpaint a picture, and it's apicture that Democrats shouldlove and a picture that Republicans should be reallyworried about because what arewe talking about here? Okay, theaverage 2025, 2026 specialelections Democrats are doing, getthis, 12 points better, 12 pointsbetter than Kamala Harris did in2024, and you know, that was astate special election thathappened in Texas on Saturday.If you look at the federalspecial elections, this 12points is actually north of 15points on average."

"I was lookingback through the history books," Enten added. "This looks a whole heck of a lotlike what we saw during the 2017-2018 cycle, where you saw these Democrats outperforming how Hillary Clinton did in 2016, andwhat did it forecast? Itforecasts a net gain of 40 seatsfor Democrats, and I rememberback in Pennsylvania, remember,there was that southwest, thatwas a congressional specialelection seat, but that was onein which the Democraticcandidate was able to actuallywin in a deeply red Republicandistrict and that, of course,foretold big Democratic gainscome 2018."

Democrats have been consistently outperforming Harris in elections since 2024, and Enten said that trend historically predicts midterm results.

"Okay, so you see this 12-point overperformance, you seethis 31-point overperformance,but that don't mean nothing ifit ain't forecastable to themidterm elections," he said. "So what arewe looking at here? Well, take alook at special elections, sinceall the way back in the 2005-2006 cycle, five out of fivetimes the party that outperformsin the special elections goes onto win the U.S. House of Representatives, and this, ofcourse, all paints a picture,right? Texas 9, the specialelections, the history ofspecial elections in which Democrats look like they're inthe catbird seat to take backthe U.S. House come 2026, November."

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