Democrats’ sweeping Senate gains could set up a historic shift on the Supreme Court, and a 93-year-old Republican’s refusal to step aside may have widened their opening, a columnist argued Thursday.
In a column for Public Notice, political scientist Tom Schaller wrote that the new Senate majority is the most significant prize of last week’s blue wave. Control of the Senate, he argued, now matters almost as much as the presidency in shaping the Court.
If Democrats keep the chamber for six years, retirements or deaths could let them rebalance a Court where conservatives hold a 6-3 edge, Schaller wrote. He pointed to the three oldest justices: Clarence Thomas, 78, Samuel Alito, 76, and Sonia Sotomayor, 72. If Thomas and Alito remain on the bench until 2028 and Democrats win the White House while holding the Senate, the party could flip the Court to a 5-4 liberal majority, he argued.
Alito has told people close to him he does not plan to retire immediately, according to The New York Times, and Democrats take control of the Senate in January.
Schaller singled out Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, who does not plan to resign before Democratic Gov.-elect Rob Sand takes office, a spokesperson said. Sand would appoint a temporary replacement if the seat opens during his term, which Schaller noted, with apologies for the morbidity, could expand Democrats’ majority before 2028. Sand has said he would consider appointing an independent.
Grassley raised that very scenario in September.
“I don’t plan on dying in office, but if I did, I don’t want a Democrat governor choosing my successor,” he told a GOP dinner.
The column comes after The Associated Press called Mississippi’s race for Democrat Scott Colom on Wednesday following more than a week of ballot counting. Alaska’s race between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan has not yet been called.
Schaller urged Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer to block Trump’s Supreme Court nominees the way Mitch McConnell blocked Barack Obama’s. He also cited proposals from Rep. Jim Clyburn and the Congressional Black Caucus to add four justices, and from Sen. Cory Booker to set 18-year term limits.
“Generational victories, after all, should beget generational consequences,” Schaller wrote.