Supreme Court likely to strike down NY gun law — but it may signal support for some limits on gun rights: analysis

The United States Supreme Court may have sent two important messages during Wednesday's hearing on a New York state gun law.

The first signal from a hearing on the case is that New York's law requiring "proper cause" for citizens to obtained a license to carry firearms is likely to be struck down, according to a new analysis published online by Vox. But the second signal is that it appears there is a majority of justices willing to allow some restrictions on gun rights.

"The biggest surprise in Wednesday morning's argument in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen ("NYSRPA"), a major Second Amendment case before the Supreme Court, is that conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett appeared open to many of the state of New York's arguments defending its restrictions on where individuals may carry a gun," attorney Ian Millhiser wrote.

"Even if Barrett does side with New York, however, her vote is unlikely to matter. Four justices — Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh — left little doubt that they will read the Second Amendment expansively. And, while Chief Justice John Roberts appeared to disagree with most of his fellow conservatives about how the Court should approach Second Amendment cases, his disagreement appears to be largely academic. He also appears likely to strike down New York's law," he explained.

Millhiser explained two different approaches to the Second Amendment among conservatives, with some favoring a consensus approach that allows law outside of the core right, while others favor historical interpretations.

"If you're counting votes, that means there are probably five justices who support the historical methodology preferred by conservatives — although Barrett might apply that methodology differently than her conservative colleagues. Meanwhile, though Roberts might reject that methodology, he reaches a conservative result through a different approach," he explained. "But Roberts's and Barrett's questions about sensitive places do suggest that, at the very least, there are five votes to impose some limits on gun rights — even if New York's century-old law is likely to fall."

Read the full analysis.