A government watchdog group is urging federal regulators to investigate a series of suspiciously timed bets placed on prediction markets shortly before the Trump administration’s military actions against Iran. In a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Public Citizen said several large wagers were made in the hours leading up to the February 28 attack, sharply shifting the odds on outcomes tied to Iran’s leadership.
According to reports, some anonymous bettors reaped six-figure profits on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi after correctly predicting developments tied to the conflict. One account reportedly made more than $553,000 shortly before Iran’s supreme leader was killed in an Israeli strike, while crypto analytics firm Bubblemaps identified multiple users who collectively earned about $1.2 million betting on the timing of U.S. strikes.
Public Citizen is asking regulators to determine whether any bettors had insider knowledge of the military plans. The issue has also drawn scrutiny from lawmakers, with Sen. Chris Murphy calling the situation “insane” and pledging to introduce legislation to ban political prediction betting tied to events like war.
The controversy comes as the Trump family and administration maintain close ties to the rapidly growing prediction-market industry, raising questions about oversight and the potential for misuse of sensitive government information.
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