A special election in a deep-red Tennessee congressional district could serve as a bellwether for next year's midterm elections, and CNN's data expert Harry Enten said the results will likely give Democrats a good feeling about their chances for retaking congressional majorities.
Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps will face off Tuesday for a chance to replace Republican Mark Green, who left Congress in July for a private sector job. Polling ahead of the election shows a much closer race than many expected.
"We can't make it to the endof the year without firstholding a special election in Tennessee's seventhcongressional district this Tuesday, and it is a ruby-reddistrict inwhich the Democrats should noteven come close to winning," Enten said. "Ithad a GOP rep — of course, thatrep decided to step aside — andit's also a district in which Donald Trump has absolutelydominated. I mean, take a lookat his margins in the pastcouple of elections: In 2016, he wonit by 17 points. In 2020, Donald Trump won it by 15. In 2024, hewon it by 22 points, a close GOPwin on Tuesday. While it wouldstill be a win, it would be a signof weakness for the Republican Party."
"So what do we actuallyexpect on Tuesday in Tennessee's seventhcongressional district?" Enten continued. "We'lltake a look here. ... The most likely outcome is a GOPwin but by under 10 points, a71 percent chance. Compare that tothis, look at this: There'sactually a chance of a Democratwin, a 15 percent chance of a Democratic win in a districtthat Donald Trump carried by 22points, 22 points back in 2024."
"So even here, if the GOP wins byunder 10 points, that mostlikely outcome is actually avery bad outcome for Republicanscompared to the presidentialbaseline," he added. "We're talking about Democrats outperforming the 2024presidential baseline by doubledigits."
Democrats have outperformed their 2024 results by an average of 15 points in special elections in Arizona, Florida, Texas and Virginia, and since 2005, parties that outperformed in special elections went on to win the U.S. House majority in the following election five out of five times, Enten said.
"It looks likethe most likely outcome is Democrats outperforming the 2024baseline by at least 10percentage points, and thatcould be very, very good newsfor them come 2026," Enten said.
"Even if Democrats are not ableto capture the seventh district,it is a very good sign for themgoing forward," he added. "Now, of course,we haven't held a specialelection yet. We'll have towait and see what happens, andthe midterm election is still,what, 11 months away? But atthis point, all signs point to Democrats doing significantlybetter on Tuesday than they didback in 2024 in Tennessee's seventh congressional district, and when you put that togetherwith the prior special Houseelections this year, it paints avery good picture for Democratsheading in to 2026."