Texas appears to be in play for Democrats, as it seems to be every few years before Republicans hold on to win another election, but CNN's Harry Enten said they may have real reason for optimism this time.
The GOP-controlled state legislature redrew the Texas congressional maps with an eye on improving their chances of picking up new House seats, but Enten told "CNN News Central" those efforts may have backfired.
"You know, one of the thingsabout Texas is it's kind of theboy who cried wolf syndromegoing on there," Enten said. "Every two to fouryears we say, hey, Texas couldbe in play for the Democrats, and then every two to four years youfind out, no, it's still red.But this time might be a littlebit different, because I wantyou to take a look at Republican margins in Texas.You know, in 2024, Donald Trumpwon the state of Texas rathereasily by 14 points. But look atthe 2026 generic congressionalballot: Republicans still lead,but only by two, only by two.We're talking about a 12-pointshift here."
"I was looking backat the numbers, [and] this looks a lotmore like 2018, where you mightrecall that Beto O'Rourke camevery, very close to winning that Senate race against Ted Cruz," he added. "Soat this point, yes, Republicansstill favored, but but maybe itmight not turn out so well forteam red."
Latino voters have shifted back toward Democrats in the first year of President Donald Trump's second term after leaning further right than ever before in 2024, Enten said.
"One ofthe reasons to wonder why Texasmay, in fact, be becoming alittle bit more purple, a littlebit more purple, and a littlebit less red is because, what arewe seeing nationally?" he said. "We'reseeing nationally a realmovement among Latino voters. Sothis is among Latino votersnationally, in November of 2024, Kamala Harris won Latino votersby just four points. When youcan put a margin on one hand,you know, it's small, and thiswas historically small. Donald Trump put up a historicallystrong performance for Republican candidate. But nowlook, among Latino votersnationally, look at this. Thismargin has widenedsignificantly. We're talkingabout a 19-point margin. What isthat? That's more thanquadrupling the margin, and, ofcourse, keep in mind in Texas,25 percent of voters are Latino, atleast 25 percent are in fact Latino inthe state of Texas. So we expectthat trend to really be showingthere."
Right-wing Attorney General Ken Paxton is favored to win the GOP primary against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), but the prediction markets show he's less likely to win a general election matchup than the incumbent senator.
"Ithink Democrats really, really,really want to play there, and Iwill note when we look towardsthe general election, look atthe odds here," Enten said. "We see a monthago it was 80 percent that the GOP won the Texas Senate race. Now stillfavorites, but those odds arebecoming lower, lower for theGOP. Democrats have a real shotin Texas at this point.Republicans favored, but Democrats may really have a realplay."
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