'GOP senators are running scared' as data guru spots startling evidence in Texas

CNN's Harry Enten found evidence to suggest Democrats have a real shot at picking up a Senate seat in deep-red Texas.

President Donald Trump announced his endorsement Tuesday of state attorney general Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in a May 26 runoff election, and Enten told "CNN News Central" that Republicans were right to question the move.

"Simply put, they'relooking at the numbers, they arelooking at the numbers and theidea that Democrats can't winin Texas – I want to put that torest," Enten said. "They could very well doit, James Talarico could verywell win in Texas, and I want touse a comparison point with2018, because there was all thistalk about Beto O'Rourke, right? Oh, could he beat Ted Cruz, hecould beat Ted Cruz. The numbersat this point in that campaign,simply put, did not support thatconclusion. But the numbers atthis point absolutely supportthe conclusion that James Talarico can win."

At this point in the 2018 election, Cruz was ahead of O'Rourke by seven points, Enten said, but the Talarico leads Paxton in a head-to-head matchup by four points in the polling average.

"James Talarico ispolling better than any Democratin at least 24 years," Enten said. "You haveto go all the way back to 2002to find a Democrat even pollinganywhere close to where Talaricois polling right now. Texas Democrats have dreamt aboutturning it blue. This time thenumbers actually support theidea that they may actually beable to do it."

Paxton may be uniquely positioned to lose with his past impeachment for alleged bribery, dereliction of duty and abuse of the public trust, and he's been indicted on charges of felony securities fraud and accused of adultery by his wife of 38 years.

"The idea that Ted Cruzwas not that popular, that's afalsehood," Enten said. "That is, simply put,a falsehood. You go back, again, just look at these differencesright here, okay? Texas GOPcandidate net favorability, Ted Cruz's net favorability wasactually plus-seven points in myaverage polls. Look what Ken Paxton is, the complete inverseof that. He'sseven points underwater, solook, again, you just look at thenumbers."

"In 2018 Democrats hadthis dream of turning Texas, thenumbers didn't support it inlarge part because Ted Cruz wasactually decently popular, but Ken Paxton is anything but," Enten added. "Inpoll after poll after poll, heis underwater. No wonder Republican senators are runningscared, especially after that Trump endorsement of Paxtonyesterday."

Another factor working against Republicans is that Trump's popularity is sagging everywhere, including in Texas.

"Back in May 2018, Trump'snet popularity in Texas, he wasat plus-four points, he wasabove water," Enten said. "Again, we'relooking at the inverse of that.Trump is considerably lesspopular in Texas, which ofcourse matches what we're seeingnationally, which is that Donald Trump is less popular now thanhe was at this point in termone. You put it all together, you look at the general electionpolls, you look at thepopularity of the potential Republican candidates they'llbe running for Texas Senate."

"Youlook at Donald Trump'spopularity, as well, and you go,okay, Texas is absolutely inplay," he added. "Does that mean that Democrats will finally win theirfirst Senate race since 1988 and Lloyd Bentsen? I'm notsaying that, but it is a realpossibility."

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