‘The GOP is in a lot of trouble in a lot of places’: Analysis of new Iowa poll is bad news for Republicans

The Republican Party could be facing "soft" support in the midwest according to a new poll of voters in Iowa that is considered the "gold standard" for polling in the state.

"Fresh off a four-way primary race that drew millions in outside spending, Democrat Theresa Greenfield leads Republican Sen. Joni Ernst by 3 percentage points in Iowa’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows," the newspaper reported Saturday. "According to the poll, 46% of likely voters say they would back Greenfield if the election were held today, and 43% say they would back Ernst."

The poll was conducted by J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Company.

“This is definitely a competitive race,” Selzer declared.

"This feels like a little bit of a canary in the coal mine," Five Thirty Eight founder Nate Silver posted on Twitter. "If this race is competitive, the GOP is in a lot of trouble in a lot of places."

Mike Madrid, cofounder of the Lincoln Project -- which is running ads against Trump -- agreed with Silver's analysis.

"That’s why we went up two days ago in Iowa. We think it’s in play and there’s still downside in this state," Madrid wrote.

"The Republican base/floor is very soft. We’re punching through in Iowa, Wisconsin & Kentucky," he argued. "Same demographic."