Multiple Republican strategists are sounding the alarm on President Donald Trump’s tanking favorability numbers among two key groups of voters that helped propel him to the White House last November.
Trump overperformed last year with both Black and young voters; his support among Black voters increased to 15% from 8% in 2020, the highest rate for a Republican candidate in decades, and among young voters under 30, secured 39% of the vote, a 35% increase over 2020.
However, as Trump’s economy continues to struggle, with the latest job numbers published Wednesday being “the worst in quite some time,” these key voter blocs are turning on Trump, and leaving GOP strategists in a panic.
“Their overall performance [with] Black men, younger voters will holistically depend upon the overall health of the economy,” said Shermichael Singleton, GOP strategist and former adviser to Ben Carson, speaking with Politico in a report published Thursday.
“In terms of whether or not we can rely on those groups in November? I hope to God we can. And I’m hopeful that the economy will continue to improve. But I don’t know.”
The economy was among the largest factors that played into Trump’s newfound support among Black and young voters, though in the eight months of his second term, both groups have seen unemployment skyrocket. Unemployment among young Americans increased to 10.5% from 9% since Trump was sworn in back in January, and Black unemployment soared to 7.5% in August from 6.2% in January.
And, with both groups also seeing a drop in wages this year, their support for Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections is anything but guaranteed.
“There isn’t an alternative that is being presented in a unified manner by Democrats,” said Ron Bonjean, GOP strategist and co-founder of ROKK Solutions, a public affairs firm, speaking with Politico. “[Voters] may not be extremely happy about where the economy is at this point, but they can see that Trump is trying – and that the other side isn’t bringing a lot to bear.”
While GOP strategists couched their concerns with either criticism of Democrats or optimism for Trump’s economy to get back on the rails, those not aligned with the GOP were far more blunt in the bleak outlook for Republicans heading into the midterm elections, such as Milan Singh, founder and director of the Yale Youth Poll.
“There’s a good bit of evidence that Trump is underwater on certain economic issues and underwater with young people,” Singh said, speaking with Politico. “The question is whether those two things are connected. My guess is that they are.”