President Donald Trump issued a plea Sunday to Tennesseans in the state’s 7th Congressional District to support the GOP candidate in the race, a plea that the president pinned to the top of his social media account and one that represents a “complete political collapse,” according to one political commentator.
The congressional district had been held by former Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) since 2018, until his resignation in July, which he said was due to his securing a job in the private sector. Green’s resignation triggered a special election, and one analyst suspected it would be an easy win for Republicans, given Trump’s 2024 victory in the district by 22 points.
However, recent polling suggests that Republicans could be in for a “severe election bruising” after the Democratic candidate in the race, Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Behn, looks to be closing in on her GOP opponent Matt Van Epps, and fast.
“The fact they have to work so hard to win a Trump +22 district is really a sign of complete political collapse,” wrote political commentator Krystal Ball, former Democratic congressional candidate and MSNBC reporter and current host of “Breaking Points,” in a social media post on X Monday.
According to new polling revealed by CNN on Monday, the GOP is still more likely than not to win the race, but by a margin of under 10 points. The Democratic candidate carries a 15% chance of winning the race, with CNN’s Harry Enten concluding that even if the Republican does end up winning, if it’s by less than 10 points, the GOP may be in trouble.
"So even here, if the GOP wins by under 10 points, that most likely outcome is actually a very bad outcome for Republicans compared to the presidential baseline," Enten said. "We're talking about Democrats outperforming the 2024 presidential baseline by double digits."
The fact they have to work so hard to win a Trump +22 district is really a sign of complete political collapse. https://t.co/IqjMy9NMFc
— Krystal Ball (@krystalball) December 1, 2025