​White House blunder inflicts worst 'pain' on Trump's MAGA base: analysis

President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran has hit all Americans in the wallet but has hit “his base” harder than anyone.

According to a report from NOTUS, gas prices may be lower in the rural communities that paved the way for his return to the Oval Office, but their driving habits create an unavoidable strain on their wallets.

The report notes gas at the pump now costs 40 percent more than it did before the Iran war began in February, per the Energy Information Administration, and political scientists broadly agree that gas prices "move the needle on presidential approval."

Trump has repeatedly tried to get ahead of the political fallout, telling voters, "So I just say this, so for you to pay a tiny little bit more for your gasoline, just remember, you're doing it so that a very evil country cannot have … a nuclear weapon. So remember that, when you have to pay a little bit more."

"Pump prices have climbed more than a dollar in both the reddest and bluest counties since the war began," NOTUS is reporting, but price alone doesn't determine the pain — how much you drive does.

NOTUS is reporting, "Seen through that lens, the initial results look pretty simple: The pain falls more heavily on Trump’s base. About 87% of workers in the Trumpiest fifth of the country commute by car, according to our analysis of the American Community Survey. That’s almost 40% more than the fifth of the country that went most heavily for Kamala Harris in 2024."

Factoring in miles driven, "households in the reddest fifth of America spend about 30% more on gasoline annually" than those in the bluest areas. Measured as a share of income, red-county households spend "roughly twice" as much of their paychecks on gas as their blue-county counterparts.