President Donald Trump's focus on his legacy instead of GOP candidates has left Republican insiders expecting a "real punch to the gut" in November.
Trump told reporters recently he doesn't care about the midterms. According to a NOTUS report drawing on more than a dozen Republican lawmakers and officials, his party believes him.
"He was in a friend-gathering mode before," one anonymous GOP operative said. "And now he doesn't give a s—."
The picture outside the White House is just as grim. Brookings Institution analysts now say key indicators point to substantial Democratic gains in November, including a new House majority.
A CNN analysis published Sunday found that subtraction, not addition, is the central GOP threat — Trump's slipping approval among his own 2024 voters risks them simply staying home.
Trump has held few rallies and declined to endorse in key Senate primaries in Georgia. NBC News reported he's been consumed instead by the Iran war and "side projects" — renovating the National Mall reflecting pool and building a White House ballroom.
"I think he's endangered the midterms by alienating MAHA [Make America Healthy Again], alienating DOGE [the Department of Government Efficiency], alienating people who didn't want another war," said Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY).
"Our candidates, instead of spending time talking about the positive effects of working families, tax cuts, regulatory reform, those things, we're talking about a bogus payout fund for punks, so that doesn't help," Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) told NOTUS, referring to the since-rescinded Jan. 6 payout fund.
Former Rep. Fred Upton said November will be either a "real punch to the gut" or a "pat on the back" — depending on whether Republicans hold the line. "If either of them flips, all of a sudden, the revenge tour that Trump has been on the last year and a half changes dramatically for the worse for his administration, in terms of subpoenas, in terms of hearings," he warned.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) spent his primary campaign courting Trump's favor — then lost after Trump endorsed his opponent. "A lot of us have bent over backwards trying to get along, and obviously that doesn't make any difference to him at all," he said.
Election Day is 141 days away.