A White House promise aimed squarely at voters in several red states is running into an awkward reality, according to an administration insider.
A person close to the Trump administration told Politico in a report published Tuesday that the recent burst of optimism about a looming trade agreement with Canada is meant to send a signal to places like Iowa and Kansas. But "no one expects a deal," the person said.
The remarks cut against the message coming from the top. President Donald Trump predicted at a Sunday rally in Michigan that the trade fight would be "settled pretty soon," while National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told Fox News the same day that the two countries were "very close."
Talks between Washington and Ottawa have picked up since Trump spoke by phone with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Oct. 21. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc have been in frequent contact since then, Politico reported, though a senior Canadian official described the discussions as still informal.
Neither country has budged on its core demands. Canada is still pushing for relief on autos, steel and aluminum, while the United States wants a bigger foothold in Canada's dairy and alcohol markets. People familiar with the negotiations told Politico that any final agreement is likely weeks or months away.
Carney also has little reason to hand Trump a win ahead of the midterms. The prime minister's poll numbers have climbed since he walked away from negotiations in August, and he is set to host European Union leaders in Montreal for a summit meant to strengthen ties with the bloc.
"Carney would have to have some reason to want to get a deal before the midterms," the Trump administration insider said. "But I can't imagine why he would at this point."
An industry official told Politico that Lutnick's resistance to cutting sector-specific duties remains the biggest obstacle. "Any potential Canada deal is going to have the same issue," the official said.
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH), who told Politico he believes the two countries will eventually reach an agreement, couldn't say whether it would happen before Election Day. "I don't know," he said.