The single most important number in the global economy is flashing danger just months before voters decide control of Congress.
The U.S. Treasury bond, the bedrock of the world's financial system, has been buckling, Notus reported Wednesday. On Friday, the yield on the 30-year Treasury hit roughly 5.3%, a near two-decade high, while the 10-year spiked above 4.7%, its highest since Trump took office. Both eased slightly this week but remain near the danger zone, according to the analysis.
"The deterioration of arguably the most critical financial asset in the world now risks rippling through the broader U.S. economy in dangerous and unpredictable ways — and possibly right before the 2026 midterm elections," Notus warned.
The 10-year Treasury sets the price of mortgages, car loans, credit cards and business borrowing. When it climbs, everything gets more expensive, right as Americans are already buckling under grocery and housing costs. Economists delivered a blunt warning about the stakes.
"Five percent is really when things start to break," RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas told the outlet of the 10-year yield.
Analysts broadly agree the risk to small and mid-sized banks jumps sharply if the 10-year tops 5% and the 30-year tops 6% — both "worryingly within reach." The last sustained stretch of high rates toppled Silicon Valley Bank.
Trump abruptly abandoned his "Liberation Day" tariffs last year after the bond market convulsed, admitting people were "getting a little queasy."
Now "the bond market has looked more than a little queasy", Notus said. And tougher to fix.
A $739 billion Treasury auction Wednesday threatens to spook investors. Japan is dumping bonds to defend a crashing yen, and the Iran war could reignite at any moment. To boot, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh rattled markets last week by wavering on inflation.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has insisted the "underlying numbers" are "very tame," though not everyone is so sure. As former Fed economist Claudia Sahm put it, if rates keep climbing, "regular people will notice."