Trump's broken promises are fueling 'a reckoning of his own' making: analysis

Journalist and political correctness critic Matt Johnson is highly critical of President Donald Trump — but on Wednesday he shared an historic theory that encapsulates why the leader has found his administration in crisis.

In an article for conservative website The Bulwark, he laid out some reasons why Trump is performing so badly in polls — including his overreach and a betrayal of the economic issues he campaigned on in 2024.

"Thirty years ago," he wrote, "the political scientist Christopher Wlezien proposed the 'thermostatic' theory of politics. In short: If policy goes too far in one direction, voters will send signals to push it in the opposite direction, over time maintaining a rough equilibrium. This effect shows up in public opinion polls on a variety of topics, from immigration to economics to foreign policy. Although Donald Trump has demonstrated that he's uniquely capable of breaking democratic norms, he may finally have swung the pendulum too far on all of these issues."

Johnson continued, "There are indications that, in thermostatic fashion, Americans are responding to Trump's attacks on every value, institution, and tradition of American politics by regaining their appreciation for why and how our system works. Trump's dismal approval rating suggests that Americans were expecting more from his second term. Voters returned him to the Oval Office because he promised to make their lives more affordable, but he did the opposite by erecting the highest trade barriers the United States has had in a century."

Johnson noted that, according to a recent Associated Press/NORC poll, only 31 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy — and that a recent Politico poll found that only 22 percent of Trump voters believe his steep tariffs are economically beneficial.

"Plummeting economic numbers should be a political emergency for Trump, as the economy was by far the issue that mattered most to voters in 2024," Johnson argues. "Inflation has been rising since April — when Trump announced his 'Liberation Day' tariffs — while the labor market is cooling and unemployment is rising. Although tariffs have generally come down since the eye-watering levels announced on Liberation Day, the average effective tariff rate is 18 percent — the highest since 1934…. It has become increasingly clear what unrestrained Trumpism means for the country: corruption and cruelty at home, incompetence and anarchy abroad. Trump likes to present himself as the reckoning for decades of elite failures, but he’s in for a reckoning of his own."