Donald Trump's electoral gains paradoxically offer Democrats a glimmer of hope in the next few elections, according to a new analysis.
The former president picked up wins in urban, suburban and rural counties and improved on his vote share in 49 of the 50 states, with improvements in 90 percent of all U.S. counties. But a new CNN analysis suggests the magnitude of those gains is the result of a factor that might work against Republicans next time.
"The scale of Trump’s advance this year points toward a common national experience in all regions of the country — a shared disappointment in the results generated by President Joe Biden’s administration, primarily on inflation, but secondarily around other issues led by immigration and crime," wrote senior political analyst Ronald Brownstein.
"The evidence that the outcome was driven largely by a negative verdict on Biden’s performance underscores the possibility that Democrats could recover sooner than now seems possible if Americans one day conclude that Trump hasn’t delivered the better results he has promised."
The across-the-board Democratic decline “reflects a very broad sense of discontent" that cuts across a broad segment of voters and hurt Kamala Harris, according to Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz. But he said Republicans face the same risk if Trump pursues policies that even his voters opposed, and especially if he can't ease concerns about the cost of living.
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"Experts agree that factors beyond disappointment in the Biden administration’s outcomes also influenced the results," Brownstein wrote. "These ranged from a widening cultural gap between Democrats and Latinos, especially men, to continuing resistance among some voters to entrusting the presidency to a woman, to the GOP’s successful efforts to portray Harris as an extremist cultural liberal largely through attacks on views about transgender issues she expressed during her 2020 presidential campaign."
Biden dropped out of the race in July, but voter discontent over his performance cost Democrats – and Harris – the election, as unpopular outgoing presidents consistently have going back decades.
“People struggle to find explanations for what is going on with Hispanic men, or with young people, but the most common explanation [to all of them] is the right one,” said UCLA political scientist Lynn Vavreck, the co-author of books on the 2016 and 2020 elections. “Nobody thinks things are going well, and if you are the incumbent you own that.”