Trump fanning flames of Jan. 6 could be 'a real problem' for Republicans in 2024: analysis

The January 6, 2021, siege of the US Capitol is looming large in voters' minds this election cycle, as former President Donald Trump continues to double down on his promise to pardon his supporters who were charged and convicted with participating in the deadliest attack on the capitol building since the War of 1812.

According to a recent CNN analysis, both Trump and President Joe Biden have seized on January 6 as a way to rally their respective bases. Trump has used it as a day in which he alleges his most ardent backers did nothing and wrong and were subsequently politically targeted by Biden's DOJ, and Biden has repeatedly remarked on January 6 as a reason to protect and defend democracy amid attacks from Trump and his acolytes.

"People know what happened on January 6,” Biden advisor Mike Donilon told CNN. “I think most of the country is going to say, ‘We don’t embrace political violence. We do embrace democracy. We do embrace the rule of law. We’re not interested in pardoning people who ransacked the Capitol, and we’re going to have a real problem supporting someone who embraces all that.’”

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The former president has referred to January 6 defendants as "hostages," and has vowed to pardon scores of them if elected to a second term. At a 2023 rally, he played audio of incarcerated January 6 convicts — dubbed the "January 6 prison choir" — singing a rendition of the national anthem entitled "Justice for All."

"Our people love those people,” Trump said of his supporters and those jailed for the capitol riot. “What’s happening in that prison, it’s a hellhole.. These are people that shouldn’t have been there.”

Meanwhile, one unnamed Biden campaign adviser said he was personally surprised that January 6 has become such a common point of concern in focus groups of voters. Some Democratic operatives told CNN they refer to the imagery of January 6 as "scar tissue" on voters' minds.

“Anyone who is being honest was surprised Jan. 6 continues to be this resonant,” the adviser said. “But in hindsight, when you combine extreme rhetoric, extreme policy and lasting imagery, that ends up being a pretty powerful memory.”

READ MORE: 'They can only kill so many of us': New J6 video shows rioters face to face with congress

Trump's rhetoric around January 6 has likewise influenced that of Republicans vying to be his 2024 running mate. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) said in February that had he been in former Vice President Mike Pence's position, he would not have certified the 2020 election results. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-New York) — the House Republican Conference chair who is on Trump's VP shortlist — has said the same.

Donilon, the Biden advisor, lamented to CNN that even three years after the nationally televised insurrection, there are still dueling narratives about the deadly attack that resulted in five deaths of law enforcement officers and several hundred others injured.

“There was a hope that January 6 would have been a decisive moment in terms of the threat to democracy. But it’s not," he said. "It’s an ongoing battle."

The Department of Justice has charged more than 1,300 people in relation to the capitol riot, and has so far secured over 950 convictions. More than 500 of those convicted have been sentenced by anywhere from several days to 22 years in prison.

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