'Seemingly safe Republican states' in play in '26 if Trump doesn't change course: analyst

Noting that Donald Trump's handling of the economy is getting lower approval numbers that his already low personal numbers, an analyst for the New York Times suggested that is very bad news for the president and likely even worse news for the Republican Party.

In an analysis published on Sunday, the Time's Nate Cohn wrote that, as goes the economy, so goes the fortunes of the party in power.

If historical precedents hold, the GOP has a Trump problem on its hands.

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"This week, the next two years of American politics began to come into focus, and it does not look like a MAGA or Republican 'golden age,'" he wrote before adding, "The tariffs announced Wednesday, however, introduce a political problem of an entirely different magnitude for Mr. Trump and his party. No party or politician is recession proof. Historically, even truly dominant political parties have suffered enormous political defeats during major economic downturns."

Adding that "Trump and the Republicans today could be especially vulnerable," he suggested the economic damage from tariffs, to say nothing of the Wall Street chaos it has created, could drag the party down to the point where GOP candidates in normally reliable conservative states could see their careers end.

"But if the tariffs cause a recession and significant price increases, as many economic analysts expect, a plunging approval rating might be only the beginning of his problems," he wrote before warning the GOP, "If the economic fallout is bad enough, the dissatisfaction with the Trump administration could combine with the longstanding Democratic turnout advantage to make seemingly safe Republican states in 2026 — think Kansas, Iowa and Texas — look plausibly competitive, perhaps even along with control of the Senate."

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