Donald Trump’s push to make the midterm election in 11 days about himself “might backfire,” according to a new Politico poll that shows he is instead reminding Democrats why they need to vote.
Democratic midterm voters are more motivated to oppose the president than Republican voters are to support him, the poll found.
The poll, conducted by London-based firm PF Global, found nearly half of Democratic midterm voters say they will vote “mainly to oppose President Trump,” compared with 38% of Republican voters who say they will vote mainly to show support for him. That gap has been building for weeks.
Instead, 48% of Republican midterm voters say their main motivation is to show support for a local candidate. Only 37% of Democratic voters agreed. Half of Republican voters also say they would “rather their local candidate aim to win,” even if that means speaking out against the president, Politico reported, and majorities say Trump should give candidates some room to break with him on specific policy issues.
Even a Trump endorsement appears to move Democrats more than Republicans. About 70% of Democratic midterm voters say his backing would make them less likely to support a candidate, while 55% of Republican midterm voters say it would make them more likely.
Politico noted that it isn’t unusual for voters in the party out of power to be more motivated in a midterm year, but called the lopsided findings “an ominous sign” for Trump, who has staked his political capital on delivering wins for Republicans.
“[Trump is] 100% motivating Democrats more than Republicans,” said Doug Heye, a longtime GOP strategist. “That may have been the case regardless, but it’s even more true with words like ‘diesel’ and ‘Iran’ now a part of everyday political discussion.”
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle called Trump “the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party.” RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said Democrats are “motivated by their hatred for President Trump and Republicans,” while the GOP is running on accomplishments like tax cuts and border security.
Republican candidates in competitive races are walking a tightrope, Politico reported, trying to hold on to Trump’s support without turning off moderate and independent voters, and some are privately weighing whether sharing a stage with him will hurt them.
“I think Republicans ... are stuck choosing which finger to cut off,” a national GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told Politico. “There is no good answer.”
In Iowa, where voters have grown frustrated over tariffs and rising costs tied to the Iran war, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), the Republican Senate nominee, has said the war needs to be “brought to a successful and immediate end.” She also skipped a rally Vice President JD Vance held in the state last month, according to Politico.
In Georgia, Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson has avoided public breaks with Trump on policy but limited direct references to him in ads and debates, Politico reported.
Jason Shepherd, a former Cobb County GOP chair who is supporting Jackson, questioned whether a Trump visit would do more to excite Democrats than help Republicans “in a wave election year.”