Donald Trump made a "not super smart" move that could come back to bite the GOP, according to a veteran polling analyst.
Election forecaster Nate Silver, a longtime data analyst who covered the 2024 election, noted that Trump won that election against Kamala Harris in part on the inflation issue.
But now Trump is taking actions in the Iran war that could undermine that victory, according to Silver.
"Maybe it's just me — having not been a former Fox & Friends host, I'm not a strategy expert — but seems not super smart to win an election on inflation and then start a war that causes oil prices to spike by 50% within like four days," he wrote.
Silver also included a graph demonstrating the spike he was warning about.
Maybe it's just me — having not been a former Fox & Friends host, I'm not a strategy expert — but seems not super smart to win an election on inflation and then start a war that causes oil prices to spike by 50% within like four days. pic.twitter.com/YtYAFsJc8S
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 7, 2026