The Polymarket logo appears on a smartphone screen in this photo illustration in Ontario, Canada, on March 20, 2026. (Photo credit: jackpress / Shutterstock)
A new report warns someone may have known the Iran ceasefire was coming before Donald Trump told the world, and profited off that knowledge.
That's the explosive implication of a new Associated Press report that revealed that at least 50 newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket placed massive, well-timed bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 7 — hours before Trump announced the deal on Truth Social — netting hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit.
The bets came even as Trump was threatening to wipe out "a whole civilization" if Iran didn't comply with his demands. The public ostensibly had no indication that a deal was imminent.
One wallet, created the morning of the announcement, dropped roughly $72,000 in bets and walked away with $200,000 in profit. Another, created the day before, cleared $125,500. A third, created just 12 minutes before Trump's post, made nearly $50,000.
The pattern mirrors previous episodes, including mysterious bets placed before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, that have repeatedly raised insider trading alarms in Congress.
Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) didn't mince words: "It’s highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it’s much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions."
Democratic strategist Mike Nellis wrote on X, "Lock ‘em up."
David Clinch, co-founder of Media Growth Partners, wrote on X, "People need to go to jail for this."
Bill Speros, senior betting analyst for Bookies.com, wrote on X, "If I can trade on @Polymarket using a VPN from Florida, then anyone from anywhere in the US can do it. That is clear. These concerns will have to be addressed eventually before it fully launches in the US. The calls are coming from inside the house."
Ben Yelin, an attorney, wrote on X, "We should be far angrier about this s--- and we need hearings."