With his newly announced Project Freedom – a naval operation commencing Monday to provide security for vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz – President Donald Trump “made a public bet,” international security expert Robert Pape argued on Monday, one that has only two likely outcomes: a major military escalation or “humiliation in full view of the world.”
“He is betting that Iran will not strike a ship under American protection. If Trump wins the bet, the United States stabilizes the corridor,” Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, wrote in an analysis published on his Substack. “If it fails even once, Washington must escalate – or accept humiliation in full view of the world.”
While the U.S.-Iran ceasefire began on April 8, the Strait of Hormuz – a critical shipping waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil trade flows – has remained partially closed since Feb. 28, first enforced by Iran against U.S.-aligned vessels and later by the United States after Trump ordered his own naval blockade of the strait.
The White House’s new directive appears designed to fully re-open the strait, with its closure having sent oil prices soaring and disrupted world trade. However, the directive, Pape argued, will also put the United States in an especially precarious position.
“By sending escorts, the United States has made itself directly responsible for keeping the corridor open,” Pape wrote.
“The moment a U.S.-escorted vessel is hit – by a missile, a drone, or even a proxy – the burden shifts entirely onto Washington. Back down, and every ally sees it – escalate, and the war widens under worse conditions than at the start.”
Project Freedom could not only prove to be a major failure, Pape warned, but risk the United States’ standing on the global stage, potentially marking the end of U.S. hegemony.
“This is no longer just about defeating Iran,” Pape wrote. “It is about avoiding a visible loss of global control, with US loss of authority in Europe, the Gulf and Asia.”