Despite an agreement to end the U.S. war against Iran appearing within reach on Saturday, the negotiations look poised to fail due to one critical “ability” President Donald Trump lacks, and one that former President Ronald Reagan demonstrated decisively during his first term in office, a political analyst and expert warned this week.
Trump boasted on Saturday that a deal to end the war had “been largely negotiated," but within days, jeopardized his own negotiations by floating a last-minute demand to Middle East nations, as well as by authorizing new strikes targeting Iran on Monday.
And yet, while Trump’s actions have been scrutinized for potentially compromising a path toward a negotiated settlement, Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, warned on Monday that the president was not the “greatest threat” to achieving peace.
“In recent days, it was not the Persian Gulf that emerged as the greatest threat to the agreement. It was Israel’s potential refusal to fully adhere to the regional ceasefire and halt its bombardment of Lebanon. That danger remains acute,” Parsi wrote in an analysis published on his Substack Monday.
Iran has demanded that Israel halt its bombardment of southern Lebanon as a key condition in its negotiations with the Trump administration, a demand that Israel has largely ignored.
On Friday, Israel launched what’s referred to as a “double tap” strike in southern Lebanon – following up an initial strike with a second to target emergency responders such as paramedics. More than 3,100 Lebanese have been killed by Israeli air strikes since early March and nearly 10,000 wounded, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.
To secure a peace deal, Trump could demand Israel’s compliance, much as he unsuccessfully tried to do in April when he explicitly demanded Israel halt its attacks on Lebanon. Israel strikes continued, however, with Parsi noting a similar scenario that occurred in 1982, though one that elicited a very different response by the U.S. president at the time.
“Trump could still choose to put American interests first and compel Israel to comply, much as Ronald Reagan did in 1982 when he pressured Prime Minister Menachem Begin to halt Israel’s devastating assault on Lebanon,” Parsi wrote.
“Reagan reportedly expressed outrage at the bombardment of Beirut, warning Begin that America’s support could not be taken for granted. Within hours, the bombing stopped. Trump, by contrast, has thus far shown little ability to ensure sustained Israeli compliance with his demands.”