The Trump administration is poised to unveil its new “economic D-Day” plan Monday afternoon as part of its latest ploy to force Iran into submission, but in doing so, is destined to trigger a “predictable, catastrophic reaction,” warned international security expert Robert Pape.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed the plan Sunday in an op-ed published in the Financial Times, in which he revealed that the Trump administration was readying the “single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary.” While specific details of the plan have yet to be revealed, its key component will be the use of secondary sanctions, which aim to harshly penalize any nation or entity that financially supports Iran.
Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, warned Monday in an analysis that the Trump administration’s plan was not only doomed to fail, but would likely backfire in a spectacular fashion.
“It is a seductive promise. It is also flatly contradicted by history. My 30 years of research on wartime blockades and economic sanctions shows a brutal reality: maximum economic pressure alone has not won a single major war since 1918,” Pape wrote in an analysis published on his Substack.
“From the post-WWI blockades to modern conflicts, massive economic sieges consistently fail to break a regime’s political will. Instead, they often trigger a predictable, catastrophic reaction. By backing Tehran into a corner, this financial siege poses an imminent risk to global energy markets, threatening to shut down critical shipping lanes and spike oil prices overnight.”
Perhaps the most notable example of sanctions failing to achieve a stated end is the United States’ 66-year embargo against Cuba, which has been internationally condemned since 1992 for its impact on Cubans. The embargo was imposed shortly after the overthrow of the U.S.-backed Cuban dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1959, who permitted Cuba to become what’s been described as a “virtual slave state,” allowing its resources and infrastructure to be largely “owned by American companies.”
“Bessent’s strategy isn’t going to end the war,” Pape continued. “It is actively walking Washington straight into a devastating stage of the escalation trap.”