Desperate Trump ‘gamble’ to salvage midterms may result in violent October surprise

Outside of an exchange of fire early Sunday morning, the U.S. war against Iran has been in a weeks-long lull since July as part of an apparent effort by President Donald Trump to “push the conflict out of the minds of voters,” but that strategy may very well invite attacks on U.S. forces just ahead of the midterms, one expert warned.

“Trump appears to be pursuing a very different gamble: maintaining a low-level conflict until the midterms — neither securing a diplomatic deal nor allowing the situation to deteriorate into full-scale war,” wrote foreign policy expert Trita Parsi in an analysis published Sunday in Responsible Statecraft.

“A period of relative tranquility that pushes Iran out of the headlines and, in the run-up to the elections, weakens the connection between rising inflation and gas prices, on the one hand, and Trump’s foolish war of choice, on the other.”

Instead of direct military action, the Trump administration has leaned into economic sanctions, revealing a string of secondary “D-Day” sanctions last week designed to further cause havoc to Iran’s economy. While Trump may very well hope to avoid escalations in the conflict until after the midterms, Tehran might have other plans.

“If Washington wants to keep things quiet until the midterms, Tehran may conclude that the optimal moment to strike back is two or three weeks before the Congressional elections, maximizing the political damage to Trump,” Parsi wrote.

“If sanctions weaken Iran over time while the global economy recovers and adjusts to the new reality in the Strait [of Hormuz], a prolonged pause will work against Tehran. Iran may therefore decide to escalate dramatically, taking full advantage of Trump’s perceived vulnerability in the run-up to the elections.”

Parsi warned, however, that Iran’s own alleged gamble — that stripping the GOP of its control of Congress may “restrain Trump in 2027” — may be “misplaced.”

“A Trump humiliated at the polls and potentially facing a third impeachment attempt may be forced to play defense at home, but precisely because of his domestic troubles, he may also be incentivized to lash out abroad,” Parsi wrote. “Freed from electoral constraints, Trump may be willing to take risks he previously eschewed, including deploying ground troops.”