With the midterms 20 days away, the Trump administration was confronted Wednesday with a “big escalation” in its war against Iran, geopolitical expert Brett Erickson warned, one that could soon send oil prices skyrocketing.
Early Wednesday, Tehran claimed that it had sunk a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz after it had struck a naval mine, the Associated Press reported, the first such instance of a sinking by sea mine. Erickson called the development a “big escalation,” while also flagging new data that suggested an oil price surge may be imminent.
“Data from Kpler published today shows an ENORMOUS drop off in the amount of oil transiting Hormuz per day, with the last three days only moving 10M barrels of oil COMBINED,” Erickson wrote Wednesday in a statement published on social media.
“While these numbers will likely be revised upwards over the coming days… There’s certainly been a sharp decline in volume as a result of Iran’s strikes on TWENTY SEVEN vessels in the months of October alone. This includes the container vessel struck earlier today.”
The significant reduction in oil flow through the strait was corroborated by Al Jazeera, which in a Wednesday report noted that “only 2.9 million barrels of oil were carried through the waterway on Oct. 11, the lowest level this month.” The shift marked a dramatic reversal of recent trends, with Middle East crude exports nearly rebounding to pre-Iran war levels in early October.
The 2.9 million barrels transiting the Strait of Hormuz Sunday stood in stark contrast to the pre-war daily average of 17.1 million barrels, with oil prices already climbing Wednesday morning by 89 cents over Tuesday, according to Al Jazeera.
“While the Iranian claims that this vessel struck a mine are unconfirmed, it DOES appear that the vessel is in fact sinking,” Erickson said, citing unverified photos of a cargo ship taking on water. “This marks a notable escalation.”
Iran’s October escalation was predicted as far back as August by foreign policy expert Trita Parsi, who warned at the time that Trump’s strategy to “push the [Iran] conflict out of the minds of voters” would likely backfire, and that Iran would strategically escalate just ahead of the U.S. midterms.
NEW: Data from Kpler published today shows an ENORMOUS drop off in the amount of oil transiting Hormuz per day, with the last three days only moving 10M barrels of oil COMBINED.While these numbers will likely be revised upwards over the coming days…There’s certainly been a sharp decline in volume as a result of Iran’s strikes on TWENTY SEVEN vessels in the months of October alone. This includes the container vessel struck earlier today.
— Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) October 14, 2026